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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 10:33:20 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 10:33:20 GMT -5
MrT, just think of the voting records.
You want to wait long enough that the actual villagers move off due to feeling uneasy about the wagon. If you move before them, they will be less inclined to change, which puts the wagon at more risk, because you can still change after them. People who change off at that point where looking back it appears to be "the right time" to save them will be under scrutiny if the target eventually dies mafia.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 10:34:20 GMT -5
Post by MrTLicious on Jul 27, 2011 10:34:20 GMT -5
OK, this will be my retraction when it comes:
Ok, well if going to go on my gut, then I !retract taya !INANTP
Day 1, voted for taya. Now that taya is actually under suspicion, voted for Langly (who I happen to think is posting rather differently from last game, so I am less suspicious of him than others, though I wasn't suspicious of him last game either...)
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 10:37:11 GMT -5
Post by MrTLicious on Jul 27, 2011 10:37:11 GMT -5
But maybe the alternative is that she doesn't get saved
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 10:44:20 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 10:44:20 GMT -5
Also, a general mafia tip.
Learn when to shut up.
Never say more than you need to, and never tell unnecessary lies.
It's really the secret to lying and misdirection in general and it applies here obviously.
With regards to the wagon, your vote swing is your vote swing. That you can control.
What you cannot fully control is the villagers votes. The control you can exercise on them is what I am talking about, which is seeding their doubts and letting them make their own moves off.
Which is a waiting game.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:06:22 GMT -5
Post by MrTLicious on Jul 27, 2011 11:06:22 GMT -5
Isn't it more suspicious if I'm the last and final vote that saves taya? Or is that just unlikely?
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:12:33 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 11:12:33 GMT -5
Everything you do is suspicious!
If you're the last, you're probably not the one saving her then? If you were mafia, leaving it on her even though she was safe would be "good mafia tactic" and maybe followed up that way.
People get "caught" for all the right and wrong reasons.
Therefore the point is to always exercise a delicate touch unless the situation demands more. Manipulate by not being blatant. Say less, accomplish more. You don't want your excessive actions and words from the first couple days bringing down the entire mafia end game.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:12:42 GMT -5
Post by MrTLicious on Jul 27, 2011 11:12:42 GMT -5
Also, taya, if you are about to get voted out, I think you should PM and claim to be seer. Claim to have verified Langly. This will coincide with what the guard has told him, so he'll likely believe it. Then he may switch the vote off of you. This could buy another day, and may even get our foot into the network.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:14:29 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 11:14:29 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the mason knows that both the guard and the mafia targeted him, and that everyone has a name so the seer would need to reveal that info to even have a chance of causing doubts.
An obviously false seer reveal does nothing but condemn someone.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:15:16 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 11:15:16 GMT -5
Getting into the network is overrated, and should be impossible without any thralls or fun mechanics.
Focus should be on killing the network.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:16:30 GMT -5
Post by MrTLicious on Jul 27, 2011 11:16:30 GMT -5
Oh, the seer gets more than alignment information? That's good to know. In that case, scratch the seeing business.
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taya
New Member
Posts: 46
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:20:49 GMT -5
Post by taya on Jul 27, 2011 11:20:49 GMT -5
I'm not going to claim to be a seer.
If I was a seer I would've contacted KingMole immediately.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:36:20 GMT -5
Post by MrTLicious on Jul 27, 2011 11:36:20 GMT -5
So who do we think today. Langly and KingMole, knowing 1 will be guarded? Or 2 randos to ensure the numbers?
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taya
New Member
Posts: 46
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 11:49:40 GMT -5
Post by taya on Jul 27, 2011 11:49:40 GMT -5
I don't think we should try to kill KingMole. It's possible he won't be guarded but I don't want to waste the attack.
As for Langly, it's hard to say whether he was guarded for a reason or if it was random.
In my opinion we shouldn't attack either of these. Let's try to figure out who could be a special.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 13:14:08 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 13:14:08 GMT -5
The guard day 1 has no knowledge of who is special or not, so his target is a wash.
You can already see the pressure starting to work against the mafia here. Relax. Think about the situation.
It is 4 mafia vs 4 specials. Both groups know who each other are, and don't know who the other 4 are, but know they're hiding in a pool of equal size for both.
Tools: They have a kill and a seer and a guard, you have two kills. The vote is up for grabs, but let's consider it a village kill assuming 100% seer accuracy.
Equal sides and information, two kills each, war of attrition.
What wins this fight is accuracy.
So look at your targets, primary focus is the guard, but you want to hit specials if not the guard. Anytime you kill a villager, you reduce the pool of unknowns, which is better at hiding the mafia at this point so that is a bad thing for you.
You need to out-accuracy the network, so it is time for analysis, not gambits, and for keeping them guessing. Keep them in the dark as long as possible, if they can't tell the mafia from the vanillas then you're at worst on equal footing.
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Day 2
Jul 27, 2011 13:28:40 GMT -5
Post by Infidel on Jul 27, 2011 13:28:40 GMT -5
Carefully watch how the mason talks about the vote later. If the wagon seems to be turning onto a special, most likely he will try to avert it without coming out and saying it. Kill that person hard, hopefully with the wagon turning on another non-mafia, but don't fight it. Also, watch the village right now. Delaying your action while a mafia is on the line and letting them stew is just giving all sorts of delicious confusion when they try to analyse the day if/when Taya dies. You have villagers coming to the defense of Taya simply because the wagon seems too straightforward, so even if Taya is seered this is actually good as they think they're catching other mafia with their ploy right now. And if she's not seered, you're better off.
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